My take on 4G: LTE dominates globally but WiMAX survives

There were lots of debates — and hype — about 4G during the CTIA’s Wireless 2008 conference.  Despite my sometimes contrarian opinions, my view is similar to many analysts:  The future of 4G will primarily belong to the LTE (Long Term Evolution) protocol, but WiMAX also will survive.

Although many analysts think WiMAX is a long shot, it does have a few advantages over LTE.  I also think Sprint has a shot at making its WiMAX network, Xohm, a success, but it has many, many challenges to overcome.

If you’d like to learn more, I discuss the future of 4G in my most recent weekly mobile communications column on CMP’s “Internet Evolution” Web site (see below).

Comments

[John Metelski]

THE WHY AND WHEN OF LTE VS WIMAX::
The answer is that LTE is an evolutionary technology accomodating legacy systems. In addition, legacy operators do not have enough spectrum to robustly accomodate (scale) WiMax technology. It's a fudge.
WiMax is a greenfield technology. It is suitable where there are no significant legacy systems that need to "used up" e.g., the developing world. So WiMax will be the dominant world standard for 4G.
WiMax will take 4G market share from LTE because it will be implemented and commercially available 2-3 years before LTE 4G. So it MAY dominate even in the developed world.

[Alan A. Reiter]

Hi John,

Good to hear from you! I agree that WiMAX has possibilities in emerging markets, especially those without 3G or without significant 3G systems.

Perhaps WiMAX will dominate in emerging markets and LTE will dominate in developed ly built with a large number of different devices at reasonable prices -- within the next two ro three years -- startup LTE systems in these emerging markets might have problems, especially if WiMAX also is reasonably priced for fixed Internet access.

But will many WiMAX networks be implemented within the next couple of years in developed countries?

[Jeff Paul Scam]

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